Science and prediction of monsoon heavy rainfall

Prediction of monsoon rainfall

Prediction of monsoon rainfall for a mesoscale Indian catchment based on stochastical downscaling and objective circulation patterns E. Zehe, A. K. Singh, and A. Bardossy Institute of Geoecology, University of Potsdam, Germany Civil Engineering Department, Nirma University of Science and Technology (NU) Ahmedabad 382 481, India Institute of Hydraulic Engineering, University of Stuttgart, German...

Advancing dynamical prediction of Indian monsoon rainfall

[1] Despite advances in seasonal climate forecasting using dynamical models, skill in predicting the Indian monsoon by such methods has proven poor. Our analysis identifies a flaw in the hitherto popular design of prediction systems in which atmospheric models are driven with a projected ocean surface temperature. Such a configuration presupposes Indian monsoon variability to be a consequence s...

Fuzzy Association Rules for Prediction of Monsoon Rainfall

A fuzzy association rule algorithm is implemented to extract the relationship between the atmospheric indices and the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR). ENSO and EQWIN indices are used as the causative variables. Rules extracted are showing a negative relationship with ENSO index and a positive relationship with the EQWIN index. A fuzzy rule based prediction technique is also implemented on...

Indian Monsoon Rainfall

Advancing Indian Monsoon Rainfall Predictions

Despite great strides made in seasonal climate forecasting using dynamical models, skill in predicting the Indian monsoon is woefully poor. Our analysis of the reasons for failure exposes a flaw in the popular design of dynamical prediction systems. The approach of driving atmospheric models with a projected ocean surface temperature presupposes Indian monsoon variability to be a consequence so...